On Monday, 11 December, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) will hold a two-day policy conference in Empangeni — its first major political gathering since the death of its founder and emeritus president, Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi, who’s hovered for more than five decades over the party he formed in 1975, and also over the Zulu nation, KwaZulu-Natal and South African politics.

It will be the IFP’s first policy conference in 15 years. One political pundit said this was because the IFP does not have research capacity and only followed policies at the whim of Buthelezi, who favoured working with amakhosi (traditional leaders), protecting land under the Ingonyama Trust, federalism in wanting more power to be devolved to provinces and municipalities, and being tough on crime.

The coffin at the state funeral of IFP leader and traditional prime minister of the Zulu nation Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi on 16 September 2023 in Ulundi, South Africa. (Photo: Gallo Images / Die Burger / Lulama Zenzile)

Without Buthelezi, the party has to take positions on issues facing KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa.

Another big challenge facing the party is that the IFP has pinned its electoral appeal on the memory of Buthelezi.

Images of Velenkosini Hlabisa, the party’s president, will not be placed on the party’s posters and T-shirts. Rather, all its electoral material for next year’s election will bear images of Buthelezi’s face. Even the ballot paper, they insist, will have an image of Buthelezi’s face next to the party’s name. 

Many see this as a serious concession that Hlabisa is not recognisable nor does he appeal to the party’s traditional voters. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: Buthelezi’s absence could spark power struggle for KZN leadership with king and IFP president put to the test

Siphosethu Ngcobo, the IFP general secretary, said apart from discussing pertinent political issues, the party would also have “a space to reflect on the impact on his leadership and advantages and challenges” that Buthelezi’s death presents to the party.

“It will be the first time to have a huge gathering without him. For us as the IFP, uMntwana wakwaPhindangene was the backbone, the pillar of the IFP,” Ngcobo said.

The conference will be attended by 500 delegates from all over SA, representing branches and districts. 

“These are the people from the grassroots. [In the past few weeks], we have [asked] the branches to send us their input and ideas and these are being consolidated into a document.

“We will be discussing about 26 policies and our strategy ahead of the upcoming general elections.

“The issue of leadership will not be discussed during this conference. It may come in the future, but not during this conference. This gathering is about policies and the upcoming general elections.”  

IFP resurgence

The IFP has been on the resurgence, performing well in the 2021 local government elections and regaining many municipalities it had lost, especially in the KZN hinterland. It has since won many by-elections, some in ANC strongholds.

The party was seemingly on the decline after it lost KZN to the ANC in 2004. But its recent gains have made some within the party fancy its chances of regaining control of the province, albeit with the help of the DA and smaller parties that are part of the Multi-Party Charter.

Zakhele Ndlovu, an independent political analyst and senior lecturer in politics at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said the post-Buthelezi era presented opportunities and dangers for the party.

“Throughout Buthelezi’s tenure as president of the party, the IFP was ideologically liberal, ie, espousing liberal economic policies. The question now is whether the IFP will continue with its policies, or change. The most likely scenario is that there won’t be any change in policy, at least in the short to medium terms.  

“For the first time since the IFP lost control of KZN to the ANC in 2004, there is growing speculation of Buthelezi’s party regaining control of the province. This is because the IFP has been performing well in the last two local government elections and in the by-elections.

“For this reason, it is widely expected that it is going to sustain this momentum. The other factor that accounts for the IFP’s resurgence is that the NFP, a breakaway party from the IFP, is losing support and some of its members are going back to the IFP. With Zuma no longer the president of the ANC and of the country, the ANC is also losing the support of ethnic Zulus in KZN and the IFP seems to be regaining that support it lost to the ANC,” Ndlovu said.   

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the IFP focuses its attention on regaining control of KZN instead of growing its market share in the national elections. It will make sense for the IFP to spend more money campaigning in KZN where it stands a chance to co-govern with another party or parties such as the DA and ActionSA.”

In a statement on Sunday, IFP Chairperson Blessed Gwala said, “The writing is on the wall that ANC fortunes in KwaZulu-Natal are flagging, due to failed promises and weak leadership. The ANC has reached its sell-by date and KwaZulu-Natal is in dire need of competent leadership.” 

Adored and derided

Buthelezi — whose mother was Princess Magogo, the daughter of Zulu king Dinuzulu; and whose father was Mnyamana Buthelezi, the son of one of the Zulu regiment generals — was both adored and derided. Many, especially in the KZN heartland, regarded him as a visionary leader who brought development, education and economic opportunities.

But many others regarded him as an ethnic chauvinist, the leader of the ethnic Zulu impis who rampaged in urban South Africa, leaving death and destruction in their wake, all in the name of defending the Zulu kingdom and land.

Professor Musa Xulu, an academic who was very close to Buthelezi, said, “Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi was the IFP and the IFP was and continues to be Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi. His stature looms large over them. He was in the lifeblood of the IFP for close to 50 years. He understood the political dynamics of the time and could easily switch roles in public, as a Zulu, and a politician, a traditionalist, a modernist.

“My assessment is that people in the current IFP leadership are young and were not present at the height of the IFP (late 1970s, 1980s, 1990s). None of its leaders carries the kind of vision he had. But all the same, they have no choice but to exploit the remaining public sentiments around Buthelezi, albeit shrinking. 

“The public knows that he is dead, and he died crying about the treatment he was receiving from King Misuzulu. The IFP seems to be brushing that aside. Public perception may be that by gravitating towards King Misuzulu without dealing with the heartaches of Prince Buthelezi, the IFP is being perceived as caring less about Buthelezi as a person. This may backfire at the polls, especially in KZN north of uThukela River where Buthelezi was most loved.” 

Xulu said that although the ANC seems to be on the rope, it would still be very difficult for the IFP to dislodge it from power, especially in KZN.

“Most polls so far have placed the IFP below 30% in KZN and between five and 7% nationally; things being what they are, 22%-26% in KZN seems more realistic. Their [share of the vote] will drop if they intensify internal squabbles. So, even to rule over KZN they will need coalitions beyond the DA. It may be an uphill [battle].

“The ANC is becoming weaker and weaker in KZN, GP as well as, of course, in the Western Cape. In KZN, the ANC may still hover around between 47% and 51%. Or even drop to 45%. [In that case] they will need one or two friends to cross to 51%. But [the ANC] have started campaigning already,” said Xulu, referring to, among other things, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent whirlwind campaign and other political engagements in the province. DM