Russia’s Defence Ministry said it shot down 28 Ukrainian drones targeting facilities in occupied Crimea and that it had conducted strikes in Odesa and Mykolaiv on a base and manufacturing site for naval drones. Ukraine said it shot down 31 unmanned aerial weapons in those regions and intercepted six Kalibr cruise missiles.

Uncertainty over global food prices grew after Russia halted the Black Sea grain deal, closing a crucial export route for Ukraine, one of the world’s top suppliers of wheat and vegetable oils. The bigger risk lies in the longer term, as fractured and costly logistics could spur Ukrainian farmers to further cut harvests.

Latest developments

• Drones target Crimea after Putin vows revenge for bridge blast
• Poland and Slovakia push to further extend ban on Ukraine grains
• Russia’s overseas crude shipments slump to a six-month low
• Russia pulls the plug on Ukraine grain export agreement
• Putin vows response against Ukraine over Crimea bridge blasts

EU salvages Latin American summit after tussle on Ukraine stance

Leaders from the European Union and Latin America — except for Nicaragua — managed to agree on language critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, moving past a debate that threatened to stymie efforts to rejuvenate ties at a two-day summit in Brussels.

The EU was seeking a section in the final joint declaration that condemned Russian aggression in Ukraine and demanded a withdrawal, but countries led by Cuba and Nicaragua objected. They pushed for broader language that showed concern about the war and supported a cessation of hostilities.

In the end, 59 of the 60 countries agreed on language that expressed “deep concern on the ongoing war against Ukraine” — without any mention of Russia.

“It’s remarkable that we found a wording which many can support, which we maybe didn’t expect in the past,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters after the summit ended. “My impression is that there’s a global shift. Russia shows more and more that it has imperialist interests.”

It “felt like a new beginning for old friends — we need each other”, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters. She noted that the leaders agreed to hold an EU-Latin American summit every two years.

Poland, Slovakia, Hungary push to extend Ukraine grain ban

Poland, Slovakia and Hungary justified their intention to extend local sales bans on Ukraine grain until the end of the year, even amid concerns that Russia’s decision to end a grain-export deal with Kyiv may disrupt food supplies.

The three countries — with Bulgaria and Romania — currently have restrictions in place on purchasing some of the country’s grain until mid-September, after declining prices spurred protests from local farmers. The European Union agreement still allows transit shipments to countries elsewhere. 

“I see no substantive argument” for the current ban to expire in mid-September, Poland’s Agriculture Minister Robert Telus said in a radio interview on Tuesday. “I’m hoping the embargo won’t end, that we will be able to win its extension within our coalition of five EU nations.”

Ukraine has repeatedly called on the EU to end the ban on its crop exports, saying it was helping the Kremlin intensify pressure on the country’s economy. The tensions are only likely to grow after Russia said on Monday that its year-old deal allowing grain shipments from the war-torn country to leave through Black Sea ports will cease to be effective on Tuesday.

Wagner mercenaries boosting presence in Belarus

The number of Wagner mercenaries relocating to Belarus rose significantly over the past week as the country’s president established a “people’s militia” and approved a military training deal with Russia.

As many as 2,500 members of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private military force may already be based in Belarus, according to Belarusian Hajun, an international group of monitors tracking military movements in the country.

Two Wagner convoys with as many as 185 vehicles entered Belarus on Tuesday alone, according to the group. Belarusian Hajun uses open-source data, including satellite imagery, as well as witness accounts for its reports. The group published several videos and photos showing long columns of vehicles with Wagner symbols on Belarusian highways. 

Arresting Putin would be like declaration of war, says Ramaphosa 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said a court order that would force him to commit to arresting Russian leader Vladimir Putin if he attends a BRICS Summit in Johannesburg next month would be premature, and effecting such a ruling would be tantamount to a declaration of war.

The Democratic Alliance approached the high court to compel the government to honour an International Criminal Court warrant issued against Putin related to war crimes during the invasion of Ukraine. South Africa is a signatory to the Rome Statute that established the ICC and is bound by its decisions.

The government was aware of its legal obligations and was seeking ways to deal with the warrant, Ramaphosa said in an answering affidavit to the DA’s application. He argued that until Putin lands in the country — and he may never do so — he is under no obligation to pronounce on the matter.

“Any obligation to arrest has not arisen,” Ramaphosa said. “It would potentially arise if President Putin were to come to South Africa.”

South Africa shuns pressure to take sides in Russia-Ukraine war

South Africa won’t bow to pressure to pick sides in Russia’s war on Ukraine and is confident an African-leader initiative to broker an end to the fighting will succeed, Deputy President Paul Mashatile said.

Pretoria’s adoption of what it terms a non-aligned stance toward the conflict and its abstention from United Nations resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion has stoked tensions with the US, its second-biggest trading partner, which has been trying to build a united international front against Russia.

The notion that the government should have to choose between its partners was unacceptable, Mashatile said at a meeting of officials from the governing African National Congress and their counterparts from the BRICS group of nations in Boksburg, east of Johannesburg, on Tuesday.

“South Africa has recently been subjected to immense pressure in order to choose a side in the ongoing war in Ukraine,” he said. “The ANC would like to firmly reiterate its anti-war stance, which we have asserted since the war began more than a year ago. We are for the silencing of the guns in Ukraine.”

Mashatile defended the purpose of an initiative by six African leaders to try and broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.

“It is difficult to understand how these doomsayers expected that a solution to the conflict would have been sought and found after just one meeting,” the Deputy President said.

Russia sends oil through the Arctic again to speed up delivery to China

Russia is sending a rare cargo of crude oil through the Arctic Sea to China, a move that will fan environmental concerns even if it means cheaper delivery costs for the nation’s petroleum.

The Aframax-class tanker Primorsky Prospect is heading north up the coast of Norway, showing its destination as Rizhao in China, where it’s due to arrive on 12 August. It is one of a handful of tracked cargoes on the route.

European Union sanctions have forced Russia to seek new markets for its crude. Those are mostly in China and India, adding thousands of kilometres to delivery times and making freight more costly.

While that might make the shorter Arctic route appealing, there has long been opposition to using the sea for merchant shipping. Organisations including the UN’s intergovernmental body for climate change have said doing so could have negative consequences for the region, including higher emissions and threats to marine ecosystems.

Using the so-called Northern Sea Route, or NSR, through the Arctic waters off Russia’s northern coast, could shave as much as two weeks, or about 30%, off the voyage compared with the southern route through the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal.

Ukraine plea to keep grain moving clashes with shippers’ reality

Ukraine is pushing for grain exports to continue from key ports following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal. Insurers and shippers aren’t so sure.

Russia’s termination of the pact this week means that it will no longer guarantee safe passage through the waterway. Ukraine is calling on other nations to help facilitate shipments from three of its deep-sea ports, which were covered by the agreement. 

The US said shipping escorts are not an option, and insurance broker Marsh on Tuesday suspended its programme for grain exports from Ukraine, underscoring the challenges ahead.

“No sane owners will call there uninsured,” said Vasilis Mouyis, joint managing director of Greece-based Doric Shipbrokers, which had previously had sent vessels through the shipping passage. Without the protection of the safe corridor “the Ukraine trade is dead”. DM