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UKRAINE UPDATE: 21 APRIL 2023

Key allies consider a near-total ban on exports to Russia; Nato chief Stoltenberg visits Kyiv

Key allies consider a near-total ban on exports to Russia; Nato chief Stoltenberg visits Kyiv
A handout photo made available by Ukraine's Presidential Press Service shows Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (L) and President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky during their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine, 20 April 2023. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Ukriane Presidential Press Service Handout)

Some of Ukraine’s key allies, including the US, are considering moving closer to an outright ban on most exports to Russia, a potentially significant tightening of economic pressure on President Vladimir Putin.

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Thursday, his first since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Ukraine’s “rightful place” is in Nato, he told reporters, adding that “over time, our support will help to make this possible”. 

Stoltenberg’s trip, during which he met with Ukraine’s president, came a day before he’s scheduled to attend a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Ramstein, Germany, hosted by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Mark Milley, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff.  

Key developments

Slovenia to join EU ammunition purchases for Ukraine  

Slovenian Defence Minister Marjan Sarec will sign a project agreement with the European Defence Agency on joint procurement of 155m artillery ammunition for Ukraine, the central European country’s government said on Thursday. 

PM meets head of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Ukraine’s prime minister met in Kyiv on Thursday with Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), he said on Twitter. The London-based agency is one of the biggest lenders to Ukraine. 

This year it will focus on supporting the country’s small and medium enterprises, the energy sector and road construction projects, Denys Shmyhal said. According to the bank’s data, the EBRD is on track to invest €3-billion in Ukraine in 2022-2023.  

Foreign minister assails EU delays in procuring ammunition

Ukraine’s foreign minister took to Twitter to comment on “the inability of the EU to implement its own decision” on jointly procuring ammunition for Ukraine. “For Ukraine, the cost of inaction is measured in human lives,” Dmytro Kuleba said.   

Ukraine’s rightful place is in Nato, says Stoltenberg 

Stoltenberg said he discussed Nato’s multiyear support package, which leaders are due to sign off this summer, when he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The initiative aims to help Ukraine’s armed forces transition from Soviet-era equipment to those with Nato standards, calling this “a testament to Nato’s long-term commitment to Ukraine”.

Zelensky, speaking alongside the Nato chief, stressed that Ukraine is “not looking for a compromise. We need something more than the current format of relations. We want to understand when Ukraine will join Nato.” 

Stoltenberg travels next to the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Ramstein, Germany, on Friday. “I expect that Nato allies and partners will make new announcements of concrete military support to Ukraine,” he said.  

 

 

 

US, Ukraine allies consider near-total ban on exports to Russia  

Some of Ukraine’s key allies including the US are considering moving closer to an outright ban on most exports to Russia, a potentially significant tightening of economic pressure on President Vladimir Putin over his war.

Group of Seven officials were discussing the idea ahead of a leaders’ summit in Japan in May, according to people familiar with the matter, and the aim would be to include European Union member states in the crackdown. The proposal was still being debated and could change, the people said.

Nato’s Stoltenberg makes surprise visit to Kyiv 

Stoltenberg’s first visit came as he has sought to balance encouraging allied support for Ukraine, while ensuring the alliance itself doesn’t get dragged into a broader conflict with Moscow. 

As Nato expands northward, Ukraine’s own bid to join the military alliance continues to languish given that its Article 5 security guarantees could immediately involve the broader bloc, including the US, in the war. While Ukraine’s eastern Nato allies are pushing to at least give the country a concrete roadmap toward membership, the alliance is unlikely to issue any specifics or timeline when the leaders gather in Vilnius this summer.

Instead, Nato will outline the alliance’s long-term support for Ukraine, including with a package of non-lethal aid. Leaders may also upgrade the status of Nato’s political ties to Ukraine, for instance with more intelligence sharing and other regular consultations.  

Wheat prices slide as Ukraine resumes exports 

Wheat prices extended their largest decline in a month as Ukraine resumed grain shipments through the Black Sea corridor after a two-day halt.

Futures for wheat fell 1.2% after a 2.4% drop on Wednesday, the day inspections of crop vessels restarted. The halt had sparked fears over the future of a UN-brokered agreement that provides a safe passage for ships carrying crop cargoes from Ukraine, a key supplier to world markets. 

Netherlands and Denmark buy Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine  

Denmark and the Netherlands agreed to donate 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine, the Danish Ministry of Defence said in a statement. 

The two countries will split the €165-million costs and the tanks will be delivered in the first quarter of 2024. The Netherlands is also contributing to two initiatives for joint procurement of 155mm artillery ammunition. 

 

 

 

US task force seeks to transfer seized assets  

The chief of the US Justice Department unit charged with seizing assets connected to violators of sanctions against Russia said the programme “cuts the purse strings from the Kremlin”, and that Congress could help it to do more. 

Andrew Adams, the director of Task Force KleptoCapture, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power that legislators could provide the authority to funnel proceeds of the seizures from export control violations to Ukraine. 

The Justice Department currently only has the authority to convey proceeds to Ukraine from assets seized from sanctions evasions. 

Ukraine pitches high returns in wartime fire sale of state firms  

Ukraine is looking for investors brave enough to bet that it will beat back Russia’s invasion with a simple pitch: High risk can offer high reward.

The country is preparing to sell big government-run firms at distressed prices. The aim is to shore up the aid-dependent budget and end a decades-old, post-communist legacy of corruption and mismanagement that has undercut the economy.

If legislators agree on changes at a session scheduled for the start of May, Kyiv could earn more than $400-million in a best-case scenario by selling enterprises ranging from a fertiliser producer to utilities, smelters and an insulin maker. Another $190-million could come from leasing farmland, Rustem Umerov, the head of the State Property Fund, said in an interview. DM

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