Ukraine hasn’t claimed responsibility for incursions deep in Russian territory, which have become more common as the Kremlin’s year-old invasion has continued. Explosions were reported near an oil refinery in Tuapse, according to state news agency Tass. Outside Moscow, a drone crashed in the Kolomna region, but didn’t cause any damage, Tass said.

Pentagon investigators have no proof yet that US weapons sent to Ukraine have fallen into the wrong hands, Robert Storch, the Defence Department’s inspector-general, told House lawmakers.

Key developments

• Ukraine signals it may be forced to abandon Bakhmut to Russians
• Xi faces more scepticism within China as global problems mount
• Sanctions headache threatens to dent India’s Russian oil imports
• China gas use is bigger worry for EU than Russia halt, IEA says
• Russia’s war in Ukraine: key events and how it’s unfolding

US sees no signs of Ukraine weapons falling into wrong hands

“We have not substantiated any such instances” of US weapons going astray, Storch, the Defence Department watchdog, told the House Armed Services Committee, adding that the Pentagon has more than 90 investigators involved in overseeing US weapons aid to Ukraine. He said there are 20 ongoing and planned evaluations, including criminal units focused on fraud prevention.

The panel’s oversight hearing of military aid to Ukraine coincides with growing fault lines in Congress over continuing to pour money into defeating the Russian invasion. “We want to know that we can tell our taxpayers that their money is being spent wisely,” Republican Representative Scott DesJarlais said during the hearing.

Although the US lacks troops on the ground to check on weapons that are deployed, Ukrainians have been outfitted with scanners and software to track equipment, Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s policy chief, told the committee.

US eyes sanctions evasion in central Asia, says Blinken 

The US is closely monitoring Russia’s efforts to evade sanctions via central Asia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Kazakhstan, highlighting concerns that Russia is receiving microchips and other technology through imports from its neighbours.

The Biden administration will provide an additional $25-million to help central Asian states diversify trade relationships and export routes, Blinken said in the capital, Astana, the first stop on a trip through Central Asia and India. Blinken spoke after meeting foreign ministers of the so-called C5 grouping of Central Asian states, which have long relied on Russian and Chinese trade.

Kazakhstan doesn’t want its territory to be used for sanctions evasion, Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi said, speaking alongside Blinken at a briefing.

OECD to open office in Ukraine

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development is opening an office in Kyiv, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said after meeting its secretary-general, Mathias Cormann.

In May, the multinational body, which includes almost 40 countries, recognised Ukraine as a prospective member country. The new OECD office will coordinate efforts on the reconstruction and restoration of Ukraine, as well as the implementation of OECD tools, standards and recommendations in the country, Shmyhal said on Twitter.

US GOP senator predicts Biden reversal on F-16s for Ukraine

US Senator Dan Sullivan faulted President Joe Biden for blocking the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine and predicted he would reverse himself under bipartisan pressure as he has in the past on other weapons systems.

Sullivan, a Republican from Alaska who sits on the Armed Services Committee, said on Twitter he hosted Ukrainian fighter pilots at the Capitol last summer and wrote a letter to Pentagon leaders pressing them to approve F-16s. Administration officials have expressed concern in the past that the planes would widen the war and provoke Russia unnecessarily.

But Sullivan said the fighter jets were needed last year and certainly now. “Mark my words: As has been the case throughout this war, congressional pressure will continue, and in two to three months, the F-16s will be approved.”

Poland won’t buy Russian oil in March, says premier 

Poland plans to buy no Russian oil — or “close to none” — in February and March, Premier Mateusz Morawiecki said at a press conference in Warsaw, citing information he received from state-controlled refiner PKN Orlen. The company stopped receiving oil via the Druzhba pipeline from Russia over the weekend. Russian oil accounted for about 10% of Polish supplies in recent months after the country rushed to slash imports following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Lithuania energy company urges sharing of ‘additional profits’ 

Lithuania’s state-owned energy company Ignitis Grupe has written to rivals around the world appealing for them to follow its example and share about 10% of last year’s “hundreds of billions of dollars in additional profits” with Ukraine to help fund the rebuilding of the country’s energy infrastructure.

“We believe sharing profits with the country that is suffering the consequences of the war that has led to those profits is morally the right thing to do,” Chief Executive Officer Darius Maikstenas wrote in the letter to 57 firms, including Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP. Ignitis Grupe’s contribution would be about €12-million, the company said in a statement to shareholders.

War to continue through 2023 — Latvia 

Russia has the necessary resources to continue its war on Ukraine through this year, while the government in Kyiv has “the willpower” combined with “growing Western support” to mount a successful defence, according to Latvia’s security service.

Ukraine could also gradually recover some occupied territory, the service said in its annual report, adding that Russia’s mobilisation has still not provided enough troops to carry out attacks outside the eastern Donetsk region close to the frontier. The Kremlin isn’t ready for negotiations to end the war and any signals of such intent are a “bluff”, according to the report.

Europe needs two to three years to replace Russian gas 

Europe has a lot more work to do before it can fully replace Russian natural gas and prices could rise again, according to Eni SpA Chief Executive Officer Claudio Descalzi.

“It is going to take two to three years for Europe to be able to replace completely Russian gas,” Descalzi told Bloomberg TV. Europe’s total imports of the fuel from Russia this year will be about 60 billion cubic metres less than in 2022, Descalzi said.

Gazprom CEO reportedly in Tehran 

Gazprom Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller arrived in Tehran on Tuesday for talks with Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji or his deputies, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. Miller planned to discuss a “roadmap for cooperation” for the Russian company in Iran’s energy sector, according to the report.

Russia briefly closes St Petersburg airport

Russian authorities briefly closed the international airport in St Petersburg and the airspace in a radius of 200km around the city, citing an “unknown object”, state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Tass, another state news agency, later said the restrictions had been lifted. Flights were diverted, but no further details were provided.

Zelensky urges allies to ditch warplane ‘taboo’ 

In his evening address, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said an attack by what he called “Iranian drones” that killed two emergency workers on Monday showed that Ukraine urgently needs the modern combat aircraft that the US and its partners have so far declined to provide to complement its air defences.

“We will be able to fully protect the sky when the aviation taboo in relations with our partners is lifted,” Zelensky said. President Joe Biden has resisted sending Ukraine F-16 warplanes due to concerns the move could further escalate the war, and has highlighted other advanced weapons systems the US and its Nato allies have supplied.

Bakhmut defence ‘running out of options’ 

Ukraine’s defence of besieged Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk region is running out of options, Zelensky said, after signalling last week that his forces wouldn’t seek to hold the city at any cost.

“The enemy is gradually destroying everything which can be used to protect our positions,” Zelenskiy said in his address, stopping short of announcing a pullout.

‘We do want Ukraine to win’ — US

The US has every intention of helping Ukraine to achieve victory over Russia even though the Biden administration has resisted demands to supply F-16s, according to National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.

“At no time have the Russians ever achieved air superiority over Ukraine,” Kirby said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Ukraine’s greatest need currently is for air defences and a better capability for combined-arms manoeuvres ahead of an expected counteroffensive in the spring, he said, adding that “we do want Ukraine to win”. DM