The latest by-elections will leave the Patriotic Alliance feeling bullish, while the ANC and the DA shed support in tough contests.

Northern Cape

Ward 1 (Roodepan Platfontein) in Sol Plaatje, Frances Baard: ANC 32% (41%) DA 25% (37%) PA 25% (11%) Ind-Settley 13%  SPSDF 2% (1%) EFF 1% (2%) ACDP 2% (<1%)

The setting: Ward 1 is a vast area in Kimberley, the provincial capital of the Northern Cape. It is north of the city centre and includes the working-class community of Roodepan and Platfontein. Platfontein is home to the !Xun and the Khwe communities. The ward includes the tourist landmark, the Wildbeestkuil Rock Art Centre, on the road to Barkly West. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC lost four seats in Sol Plaatje and retained an outright majority of the largest municipality in the Northern Cape by a single seat, winning 33 out of the 65 seats in the council. Despite losing ground in Sol Plaatje, the ANC did manage to win Ward 1 off the official opposition in Sol Plaatje, the DA. It won this ward by 92 votes, overturning a 300-vote majority for the DA in 2016. 

The ANC held its support in the ward from 2016 whereas the DA lost ground to both the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and GOOD. The ANC won this ward in 2011, but the DA took it in 2016, with the ANC carrying it in 2021. Ward 1 is the definition of a swing ward. 

Former ANC ward councillor from 2011, Vaughan Settley, ran as an independent in Roodepan. (Photo: Emile Hendricks)

The by-election: The ward councillor passed away. The ANC and DA were joined on the ballot by the PA, which fielded the head of the Roodepan Community Neighbourhood Watch as its candidate. The former ANC ward councillor from 2011, Vaughan Settley, ran as an independent. A local party, the Sol Plaatje Service Delivery Forum (SPSDF), the EFF and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) completed the field. GOOD, which received 7% of the vote in the local government elections, sat out the by-election.

The ANC beat the DA by 197 votes to win a crucial by-election, in which both lost chunks of support. The ANC was hurt by Vaughan Settley, the former ANC councillor who had a credible fourth-place finish. The DA was stymied again by the PA which hoovered up former GOOD voters and a significant slice of DA support as well. It came within 26 votes of the DA to finish third. 

The PA won both Roodepan voting districts. At the smaller Harvest Time Baptist Church voting district it almost doubled its support by shifting from 17% to 30% of the vote. This almost aligns perfectly with the DA’s fall from 32% to 21%. The ANC was second with 24%, down from 32%. Settley was the main beneficiary of disgruntled ANC support here, with GOOD voters without a home also coming over to him in this district, where he garnered 20% of the vote. 

The PA pipped the ANC by one vote at Lucretia Primary School, the most vote-rich district in the ward. This was largely from GOOD’s support base. The PA more than doubled its support as it surged from 12% to 29%. The ANC found it tough here, declining from 42% to 29%. Settley’s 15% in the district accounts for this drop. The DA held its own with 22%, up from 21% in 2021. 

The PA’s undoing was at Platfontein where it finished a distant third. The ANC all but matched its 2021 returns, getting 47% of the vote, slightly down from 49% in 2021. The DA fell from 48% to 33%, shedding votes to the PA and the SPSDF, with the PA getting 9% and the SPSDF 7%. Settley hardly featured in Platfontein. The turnout was exceptionally high at Platfontein, where the differential turnout saw the ANC home and allowed the DA to hold its second place in the ward. 

This win for the ANC means it retains its outright majority in Sol Plaatje. 

The challenge for the ANC and the DA is that more wards in Sol Plaatje have a more similar profile to Roodepan than Platfontein. The PA will be bullish after its Roodepan returns. 

Poll: 61% (54%)

Sarah Baartman, Eastern Cape

Sarah Baartman is the most competitive district in the Eastern Cape, and the largest district in the province, covering much of its western part. It includes towns like Jeffreys Bay, Graaff-Reinet, Port Alfred, Makanda, Kirkwood and Kareedouw. Beyond Nelson Mandela Bay, it is the only other part of the province where there are municipalities in which the ANC received less than 50% of the vote in 2021. This was in Kouga (Jeffreys Bay) where the party is in the opposition, and in Dr Beyers Naude (Graaff-Reinet) where it governs with coalition partners. 

Ward 2 (Somerset East Aeroville) in Blue Crane Route, Sarah Baartman: DA 49% (60%) ANC 49% (35%) EFF 2% (5%)

The setting: This ward includes the centre of Somerset East, where the imposing Dutch Reformed Church greets you on the main road. However, about two-thirds of the voters in Ward 2 are in Aeroville, the predominantly coloured neighbourhood in Somerset East. Aeroville is south of the city centre, below the Little Fish River. 

An IEC official helps a resident who has just voted in Kimberley’s Ward 1. (Photo: Emile Hendricks)

The 2021 local government elections: The DA had its best showing yet in a Ward 2 election when it beat the ANC by 25%. The latter again carried the vote-rich Aeroville voting district, but it was competitive and the turnout percentage there was lower than in the Town Hall voting district, a DA stronghold, in the heart of Somerset East. The DA received more than 90% of the vote there. 

Visit Daily Maverick’s home page for more news, analysis and investigations

The by-election: DA ward councillor Archer Heynse’s membership was terminated for not settling his outstanding candidate fees from the 2021 local government elections. He applied to have his membership reinstated and stood as the candidate here again. 

The DA hung on here by a mere 10 votes, as the ANC came very close to pulling off a significant upset. Of the three by-elections in this round, this was the least competitive contest, but it turned out to be the closest race. The ANC’s impressive showing was built on winning Aeroville by a landslide. Its percentage vote share went up from 52% to 66% while the DA’s dropped from 42% to 31%.

There was also a big swing in differential turnout between Aeroville and the town centre. In 2021, 61% of registered voters turned out in the town centre and 54% in Aeroville. In the by-election, only 49% turned out in the town centre and 56% in Aeroville. The DA was slightly down in the town centre, from 93% to 92%, with the ANC improving from 6% to 8%.  

Archer Heynse will not finish his term. He and the DA will need to think about what went awry in Aeroville and why the party faithful did not turn out in their droves in the town centre. 

Poll: 53% (56%)

Ward 5 (Upper Somerset East Boschberg) in Blue Crane Route, Sarah Baartman: DA 47% (51%) ANC 41% (42%) PA 8%  EFF 4% (7%)

The setting: This ward contains many of the landmarks of Somerset East, including the Walter Battiss Foundation, the Somerset East Museum, Jakes Gerwel’s family home, which is now a writers’ retreat, and the imposing Boschberg mountains. The ward also includes Francisvale, a traditional DA stronghold in the town, and it also includes an area the local population refers to as Old Location. The latter is an ANC stronghold. 

A dog waits for his owner at a Ward 1 voting station in Kimberley. (Photo: Emile Hendricks)

The 2021 local government elections: The DA made history here when it won the ward for the first time in 2021. This used to be a reasonably safe ANC ward, but the DA ran the ANC close in 2016 and was able to beat it in a close contest in 2021. The ward had a slight demographic change with the Upper Somerset East part of the ward growing slightly, while Old Location went from 43% to 41% of the registered voters in the ward. The DA made a small increase in its percentage vote share in Upper Somerset East, while the ANC lost slithers of support to the EFF and the DA. 

Read in Daily Maverick: 

“Patriotic Alliance’s stunning victory breaks ANC and DA’s 15-year ward-seat dominance in Cape Town”

“Team Sugar deals bittersweet blow to ANC as small local parties offer blueprint for staying relevant”

The ANC won 94% of the vote in Old Location in 2016. It fell to 84% in 2021 as the EFF made inroads in this bastion of ANC support. The ANC’s loss of support to the EFF and the subtle demographic shifts contributed to the DA’s victory. What happened in Old Location was emblematic of the result in Blue Crane Route where the DA retained its four seats in the 11-seat municipality, with the ANC losing one seat to the EFF which won a single seat, as the ANC retained an outright majority of six seats. 

The by-election: The DA ward councillor had his membership terminated for not settling his outstanding candidate fees from the 2021 local government election. Unlike in Ward 2, that councillor did not stand in the ward again. The DA, ANC and EFF were joined on the ballot by the PA. The PA had affected the DA in the 2021 local government elections in other Sarah Baartman district municipalities such as Kouga and Kou-Kamma. A big question going into this ward by-election was whether the PA would do to the DA in Ward 5 what the EFF did to the ANC in the local government elections in Ward 5. 

An IEC officer about to scan a voter’s ID in Roodepan. (Photo: Emile Hendricks)

The DA retained this ward by 91 votes in a tough contest. There was turnout parity again between the upper Somerset East and the Old Location voting districts – 59% in both. However, the voter registration tilted again in upper Somerset East’s favour, with 61% of voters residing there, up from 59% in 2021, and Old Location moving from 41% to 39%. 

The DA won upper Somerset East by a landslide, obtaining 72% of the vote, although it was down from the 84% it received in 2021. The ANC came second with 15%. The DA’s loss of 12% in the district is the same percentage won by the PA, which was third. 

The ANC made a small gain in Old Location, from 84% to 85%. The EFF lost some ground, sliding from 12% to 9%. The DA was steady at 4%. 

Poll: 59% (51%)

Next by-elections

The next round of by-elections is on 8 March when there will be four in KwaZulu-Natal and one each in the Western Cape and the Eastern Cape. DM