The broadest point about the world economy and the World Cup is well made by Jim O’Neill and comes right out of his copybook. 

O’Neill was famous for developing the idea of the Brics nations (although it’s important to note that this idea is currently being re-examined, given Russia’s decision to turn backwards, although that is, of course, not his fault). As the old joke goes, we should have known communism was a bad thing: so many red flags.

Anyway, the point O’Neill makes is that you can see the broad outlines of recent economic developments in Fifa’s selection of host countries. 

Read on Daily Maverick: The World Cup, globalisation and the world economy

“I think it is an inescapable fact that Fifa’s selection of South Africa in 2010, Brazil in 2014, Russia in 2018, and now Qatar, was based on the steady rise of so-called emerging economies during the first two decades of this century,” he writes.

The other way the tournament reflects the unfolding of recent economic history has to do with globalisation, O’Neill suggests. I would add to that, in a similar vein, technological change. 

As the global economy has become more and more an inter-dependent unit, international tournaments have flourished. And that flourishing has been enhanced by the speed and quality of moving images, which can be transported around the world with a wondrous facility.

O’Neill wonders whether this idea has reached its zenith and we might slip backwards from here. Is Fifa, he asks, a leading or a lagging indicator of the world economy and the degree of globalisation? 

“In the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2011-20, global real GDP growth averaged, respectively, 3.3%, 3.3%, 3.9% and 3.7%. The acceleration in the most recent two full decades was clearly due to stronger growth in the emerging world and it coincides with the period when Fifa began selecting hosts from outside the traditional football strongholds.”

But this decade, the upward trend in emerging markets looks like it might be reversed, and with it, World Cup hosting may return to developed nations. Already, the 2026 event is going to be held in Canada, Mexico and the US. 

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Personally, I think O’Neill is being a bit gloomy here. 

First, it’s too early to say, because we are only two years into the third decade of the new century. And, of course, 2020 was a horrible dog show. But the world rebounded in 2021, and while 2022 will be no great shakes, global GDP growth seems likely to come in at around 3%. 

Only five countries around the world will contract this year, the IMF calculates, and one, Guyana, will have 57% growth!

The big gap that emerged around 2000 between “emerging” and “developed” economies has narrowed. The gap was largest in 2007 when developed economies grew by 2.4% and emerging market countries grew by 8.4%. This year, the gap seems likely to be a growth of 2.4% for developed economies and 3.7% for emerging market countries.

But notwithstanding Fifa being a leading indicator over the past few decades, I suspect developing countries will still be hosts pretty often, which has nothing to do with globalisation, but more with Fifa’s one country/one vote system, which gives developing countries a bit of an edge, unless developed countries – or developing countries – can find a way of lining the pockets of Fifa delegates. That many have shown an excellent facility at doing so in the past, means there is reason to think that little peccadillo will continue into the forseeable future. 

Personally, I love these events and honestly think we need more of them. 

One of the biggest issues with Qatar hosting the World Cup is that homosexuality is illegal in Qatar, with offenders facing fines and up to seven years’ imprisonment. But the great power of these events is that countries like to use them as a marketing exercise, and often for the first time have to confront at least some of their own demons via global opinion.

SA went through this process in 2010, with the seemingly never-ending debate about holding expensive sports events amid oceans of poverty. We learnt that SA did build some extraordinary white elephant stadiums, and yet, even knowing that, I still think of 2010 as one of SA’s greatest years.

O’Neill makes one other point, which is that only eight countries have lifted the World Cup trophy – all from South America or Europe. 

My hope for this year’s cup is that economic globalisation is enhanced by a country outside those two continents winning. African hopes rest on Ghana, Tunisia, Morocco and Senegal, but sadly I suspect none of these teams has real firepower. 

Asian hopes rest on Korea, Japan and Australia, but they are also lacking a bit of thump. The bookies have no team outside Europe or South America in the top 16, so the retreat from globalisation may have an echo in this year’s winner.

But this is a sports event, where we live in dreams. As one does, many argue, with globalisation. BM/DM