The Proteas might be heading into the T20I World Cup later this month as one of the dark horses for the title, but they could fail to make it to the 2023 One-Day International (ODI) World Cup.

To automatically qualify for the 50-over ODI showpiece the Proteas need to finish in the top eight of the current Super League qualifying cycle.

After this week’s 2-1 ODI series loss in India, which was confirmed when the Proteas slumped to a seven-wicket defeat in Delhi on Tuesday, the Proteas are 11th on the qualifying standings.

South Africa has 59 log points and are only above Zimbabwe and the Netherlands on the table. The West Indies, currently in eighth, have 88 points. There is a lot of ground to make up and very little time to do it for South Africa.

Each team earns 10 points for a win, five for a tie/no result/abandoned match, and zero for a loss. The Proteas gained only 10 points in the recent series against India.

If the Proteas fail to claw their way back up the log, then they will have to enter the lottery of a World Cup pre-qualifying tournament in Zimbabwe next year.

The top eight teams will get a direct entry to World Cup 2023. The remaining teams will have to play in the World Cup qualifier along with five Associate teams. Two teams from the qualifying tournament will then progress to the World Cup. India automatically qualifies as tournament hosts.

There are many permutations still to play out before then, but from a South African perspective, it is quite simple in theory. The Proteas have five ODIs left — three against England in January and two against the Netherlands in March — to play in the cycle and need to win them all.

And even that might not be enough because the maximum they could reach is 109 points. The West Indies have finished their matches but Ireland and Sri Lanka, above South Africa on the standings, have matches left.

Sri Lanka have six and Ireland three. Sri Lanka play a three-game home series against Afghanistan and a three-match away series to New Zealand. Ireland have three clashes in Bangladesh to come.

The path to automatic qualification is now murky for the Proteas especially as they effectively forfeited three ODIs against Australia.

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The decision by Cricket South Africa (CSA) to withdraw from an ODI series against Australia next January in favour of the new domestic T20 League, the SA20, always came with a risk.

Another complication is that the England ODI series next January, clashes with the SA20 League, meaning several top players might miss the series. And the Dutch series takes place during next year’s Indian Premier League (IPL), meaning several top Proteas will be absent.

Pragmatic Boucher

Ever the pragmatist, Boucher shrugged at the prospect of the team, and his successor, facing a qualifying tournament to make it to the ODI World Cup.

Under Boucher, the Proteas have become a force in T20I cricket but have struggled in the longer white ball format. They have won only 13 of 28 ODIs under Boucher with four no results.

South Africa coach Mark Boucher’s tenure as ODI coach ended in disappointment. (Photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)

“The reason why we’re in this situation is because we haven’t always had continuity within our ODI setup,” Boucher admitted after the defeat in Delhi.

“There have been various reasons for that, players leaving for IPL and Covid, for example. There have been some inconsistencies that have emerged and what we’ve seen now.

“But we know what is required. The players know what needs to happen come January against England and also against the Netherlands. We’ve got to win those games.

“And if we don’t, we just have to accept that we need to go to Zimbabwe and qualify for the World Cup. We understand the situation we’re in and we’ll just have to man up and face it when it comes our way.”

The other problem for Boucher is that he played just about his full-strength team in the 2-1 ODI series loss to India. And of the players used, 14 of them have travelled to Australia for the T20I World Cup.

Although it’s a different format and they will encounter different conditions in Australia, the knock on their confidence could be an issue. Boucher disagreed.

“We’ve taken some good lessons and we’ve had some good chats behind closed doors to speak about problems… or not problems but things we can get a lot better at,” Boucher said.

“That will stand us in good stead going to Australia, where conditions are completely different. We’re okay. It’s disappointing to lose, but we have a massive competition around the corner and that’s what we’re gearing ourselves up for.

“Keeping the guys fresh mentally and physically is going to be vital. Then we’ll get the best results. Australia will suit our fast bowlers a lot better.

“We need to keep the aggression there. In this last one-day game there wasn’t enough aggression. The surprising thing for me was that India’s attack, in the one-dayers especially, bowled with far more aggression than what we did.” DM