As Europe recovers from its hottest summer and August on record with river levels reaching record lows and Pakistan deals with the fallout of nearly a third of the country being flooded by monstrous monsoon rains, the impacts of human-induced climate change and the perpetuation of technologies that accelerate them are becoming increasingly clear and deadly. 

It is in this context that a recent study conducted by researchers at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, adds yet another motivation for accelerating the decarbonisation of energy systems worldwide.  

The study, Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition, published in the journal Joule, has found that, among other environmental and climate policy benefits, a “rapid green energy transition” would be likely to result in “overall net savings of many trillions of dollars” by 2050.

Workers install solar panels on the roof of a residential property in Johannesburg. (Photo: Waldo Swiegers / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

It notes: “Decisions about how and when to decarbonise the global energy system are highly influenced by estimates of the likely cost. Most energy-economy models have produced energy transition scenarios that overestimate costs due to underestimating renewable energy cost improvements and deployment rates. 

“Using a method that has been statistically validated on data for more than 50 technologies generates probabilistic cost forecasts of energy technologies” including solar and wind energy, batteries and electrolysers. 

The authors explain that “future energy system costs will be determined by a combination of technologies that produce, store, and distribute energy. Their costs and deployment will change with time due to innovation, competition, public policy, concerns about climate change, and other factors.” 

The study finds that under three scenarios, “compared to continuing with a fossil fuel-based system, a rapid green energy transition is likely to result in trillions of net savings”.

These savings, the authors explain, would be netted in addition to the benefits of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and their attendant impacts on global warming and climate change.

 Source: Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition

The research may also bolster arguments that favour a greater push for renewable energy development in the context of both South Africa’s power supply crisis and the multilayered, global energy crisis. 

Our Burning Planet previously reported that Meridian Economics, a specialised economics advisory group and think tank, found that the power cuts that plagued South Africans in 2021 could have been avoided if the grid had an additional 5,000MW or 5GW of renewable generation capacity. Beyond rolling blackouts and their impacts, Meridian also said Eskom could have saved R2.5-billion and spared 13.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-eq) being released into the atmosphere. 

Beyond South Africa, the International Energy Agency (IEA), in the recently published second edition of its Security of Clean Energy Transitions report, outlined that “unprecedented events — the global coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19), the climate emergency and the turbulence in global energy markets, resulting from the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine — have shocked the world in 2022. Unprecedented challenges … require extraordinary actions to foster solidarity and fight the first and largest global energy crisis.”

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The IEA report continues: “In the long term, accelerating clean energy transitions will support energy security as it will reduce the need for fossil fuel imports and consumption. 

“The current global energy crisis has added new urgency to accelerating clean energy transitions and, once again, highlighted the vital role of renewable energy. The world added a record 295GW of renewable power capacity in 2021.

“Renewables increase energy security not only by avoiding the use of fossil fuels and by diversifying supply, but also by lowering costs and thereby increasing affordability. Although the cost of installing solar PV and wind turbines is expected to remain higher in 2022 and 2023 than before the pandemic, due to elevated commodity and freight prices, their competitiveness is actually improving due to much sharper increases in natural gas and coal prices.”

In the “discussion” section of the Oxford study, the authors explain: “The cornerstone of the Fast Transition scenario is the timely expansion of key green technologies, because only as these are scaled up can fossil fuels be phased out and the savings be realised. The primary policy implication of our results is that there are enormous advantages to rapid deployment of key green technologies.” DM/OBP