Africa
ISS Today: Democracy and economics in Africa – the circle of growth
To unlock sustained growth across countries and cultures, regular leadership and policy renewal is needed. By Jakkie Cilliers for ISS TODAY. First published by ISS Today
At low levels of economic development, democracy has little if any impact on growth.
Yet the spectacular growth rates achieved in past decades by the Asian Tiger economies, as well as Japan, China and African economies such as Ethiopia and Rwanda, support the view that autocracies grow more rapidly than democracies. Many African leaders have been seduced by the further extension of this argument to one where democracy is largely responsible for low or no growth.
A senior Chinese Communist Party leader recently told ISS
As always, the reality is much more complicated. For every high-profile example of rapid economic
Hence countries that produce a developmentally oriented governing elite tend to grow much more rapidly. This is particularly so if this is in the form of a cohesive governing party or coterie of leadership that is clear in its pursuit of the good of the country.
Historically such a common purpose is often the result of a deep national trauma such as the genocide in Rwanda, the Red Terror in Ethiopia or the devastating Cultural Revolution in China. These events scar a country – creating a leadership committed to “never again”, united in their vision to rectify the conditions that gave rise to the traumatic events in the first place.
The problem is that this is the exception. Nature seldom proceeds in a linear way, and
The problem with authoritarian systems in the long term is often the lack of leadership renewal that regular free and fair elections bring about. Leadership in even the most developmentally determined countries becomes complacent and stale, and without renewal, initial reform efforts eventually lose their momentum. That early hunger to change, innovate and reform that comes with new leadership inevitably winds down over time.
For
Without leadership renewal, complacency is inevitable. This is where Ethiopia finds itself today after the death of its iconic leader Meles Zenawi in August 2012, and where much of Central Africa has
Teodoro Obiang Nguema and Denis Sassou Nguesso have been the presidents of Equatorial Guinea and the Republic of the Congo respectively since 1979. Paul Biya has been president of Cameroon since 1982, and Idriss Déby has been president of Chad since 1990. This makes Ali BongoOndimba(president of Gabon since 2009) appear a latecomer to a region doomed to political and hence economic stasis.
Even the most promising reformers tend to grow stale and arrogant with time, with decisive negative consequences for their economies. And that’s why term limits are important in Africa.
Where there is no regular, real, substantive political change at the top, but rather rotation within a small clique, patronage is seldom disrupted.
The problem with the incremental leadership change happening
There is only one way to unlock steady growth over long periods across countries and cultures – and that is through regular leadership and policy renewal within the context of strong institutions. And there lies the problem, for elites in poor countries often compensate for the lack of institutions through strongmen and authoritarian politics.
Jakkie Cilliers is Head of African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria and Chair of the ISS Board of Trustees
President of Equatorial Guinea Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has been president of Equatorial Guinea since 1979, makes a statement upon his arrival in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, 22 November 2017, to participate in the VI Summit of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries. EPA-EFE/Juan Carlos Torrejón